000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090932
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JAN 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIES ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W 
TO 04N100W TO 08N124W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 30 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

EAST OF 120W...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO 115W ALONG 20N 
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND BE FORCED SOUTHWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS 
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SW U.S. INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS 
TROUGH WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N127W...HELPING TO FURTHER 
BREAKDOWN THE NW SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND 
HIGH PRES OVER THE E PAC WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 
TO 10 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE COLD 
FRONT WILL PASS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE SUNDAY...WITH GALE 
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING. TO THE SOUTH...WINDS IN THE 20 
TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 
LOW PRES OVER PANAMA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/FL.  THIS PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO 
INCREASE THE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

WEST OF 120W...
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW NEAR 23N127W WILL BE FORCED SLIGHTLY 
WESTWARD AS A STRONG...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AMPLIFIES 
NEAR 40N130W...DRIVING A WEDGE BETWEEN THIS ENERGY AND THE 
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO.  CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR 
SOUTH OF THIS LOW ALONG THE ITCZ WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
WILL LIKELY BE STRONG BETWEEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN 
SIDE OF THE LOW AND THE WESTERLY 70 TO 90 KT JET S OF 08N.  
CURRENTLY...THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT 
QUADRANT OF THIS JET IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 125W.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK