000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO 
04N90W TO 04N100W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 06N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 130W AND 
139W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRADES...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THIS WEEK. A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES AND AN UPPER TROUGH 
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR PACIFIC 
AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALSO...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 22N120W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N 
OF THE AREA NEAR 32N132W. NE TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT ARE AFFECTING 
AREAS S OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THESE WINDS EXTEND S TO THE ITCZ 
AND ARE ENHANCING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
FROM 11N130W TO 04N131W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT 
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE 
AREA. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TRADEWINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH LATE 
WEEK...THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT. THE TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEA 
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SIMILAR WAVE 
HEIGHTS IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
THE WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION HAS 
RESULTED IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. HOWEVER...STRONGER CARIBBEAN TRADES WILL PRODUCE 20 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 12 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL 
THEN PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
PRESENTLY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT NW 
WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 24 HOURS AND RETURN 
IN 48 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
THAT A 1047 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY 
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.

$$
FORMOSA