000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N110W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 07N126W.

OTHER CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 35 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07.5N81W TO 05.5N85W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS 
MOVING EAST TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 24 HOURS.
LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH 
DRY AND CLOUD FREE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

DEEP LAYER LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N120W. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES 
AND DRIFT WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST 
OF THE CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND MULTI 
LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ NORTHWARD TO 
ABOUT 23N BETWEEN 108W AND 122W.

THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10N140W TO 07N132W TO 
15N121W TO 23N120W TO 24N105W TO 27N99W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOSTLY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IS NORTH OF 15N AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 15N WITHIN THIS AREA.

WEAKENING DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N137W. THE CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 130W NORTH OF 
20N. AS THE ABOVE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTS WEST THE ANTICYCLONE WILL 
FURTHER WEAKEN BECOMING A WEAK RIDGE IN 48 HOURS OVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA.

CONVECTION SOUTH OF PANAMA HAS CONTRIBUTED MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 102W. SOME 
ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA NORTH 
OF 12N WEST OF 100W. REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE IS ANALYZED AS A 
BROAD TROUGH.

GAP WINDS ARE NOT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME BUT THEY WILL RETURN TO 
THE PAPAGAYO REGION IN 48 HOURS. 

$$
LL