000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JAN 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 06N90W TO 05N100W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 06N79W. ...DISCUSSION... TRADES... AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W OF 117W AND A CORRESPONDING 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 33N139W. NE TRADES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE AFFECTING AREAS S OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THESE WINDS ARE ENHANCED AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N124W TO 08N125W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LOW BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE W CONUS DURING THE NEXT DAY. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SIMILAR WAVE HEIGHTS IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE N PACIFIC BY MIDWEEK. GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA... THE TRADE WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...RESULTING IN 20-KT WINDS AROUND THOSE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA BY THE STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 05N80W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT DAY WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE LOW. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK ONCE AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE W CONUS DURING THE NEXT DAY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CATCH UP TO A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF... DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. CORRESPONDINGLY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY SUPPORT NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE CONUS IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND A SHIP REPORT. THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. $$ COHEN/CHRISTENSEN