000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N105W TO 06N140W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ.

OTHER CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
POINT 07N78W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
09N125W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N139W AND COVERS 
THE AREA WEST OF 125W NORTH OF 15N. THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE AND 
MOSTLY DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE FEATURE IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS COVERING 
LESS AREA AS A CUT OFF LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA.

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL FORM FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS OVER 
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AREA AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 12N140W TO 
10N130W TO 13.5N124W TO 21N120W TO 26N105W TO BEYOND 32N102W. A 
PLUME...EMANATING FROM THE ITCZ...OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS 
WITHIN 600 TO 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE PLUME IS 
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CLOUDS ARE 
DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH MEXICO. THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF 
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND FORM A LARGE WEAK CUT OFF 
LOW THAT WILL DRIFT WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE 
PART OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF ABOUT 24N WILL MOVE EAST OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH 24 HOURS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF 
THE UNITED STATES IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W TO 10N112W TO 10N118W TO 00N118W THE 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 127W IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS.

LOW NEAR 05N80W 1008 MB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH 
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. THESE WINDS 
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION 
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

TRADEWINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
...RESULTING IN 20 KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 89W. SEAS ARE 
LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH IN 24 
HOURS.

NORTHERLY FLOW OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST 
FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 18N 
THROUGH 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL