000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060308
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N85W TO 06N117W TO 10N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 
89W...AND BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.

OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 116W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRADES...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W OF 120W AND N OF 20N. 
A CORRESPONDING 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N141W. 
NE TRADES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED OVER A LARGE AREA S OF 
THE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING 
FROM 14N125W TO 07N127W. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY 
MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A 
GRADUAL RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...
A 1004 MB LOW IS S OF THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR 04N80W. CONVECTION 
IS MOSTLY NE OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE ABOVE. 20 KT SW FLOW IS 
NOTED. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
TRADEWINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
...RESULTING IN 20-KT WINDS FROM 10N TO 11N E OF 89W. SEAS ARE 
LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR 
THE NEXT 30 HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
PRESENTLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
HOWEVER A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER N MEXICO AND THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND 
PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A 
SURFACE LOW IN SE ARIZONA IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN PICK UP TO 20 KT AGAIN 
IN 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA