000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N87W TO 05N95W TO 08N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM 133W TO 138W.

OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 11N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

TRADES...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THIS WEEK...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE W OF 126W AND A 
CORRESPONDING 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N143W. NE 
TRADES WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE HIGH ARE AFFECTING AREAS S 
OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THESE WINDS ARE ENHANCED AROUND THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
EXTENDING FROM 14N125W TO 08N127W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL RELAXATION OF THE TRADE WINDS. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...
THE TRADE WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND 
PANAMA...RESULTING IN 20-KT WINDS AROUND THOSE LOCATIONS. THE 
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT 
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SIMILAR WAVE HEIGHTS IN NORTHWESTERLY 
SWELL ARRIVING FROM THE N PACIFIC BY MIDWEEK.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE E PACIFIC 
REGION...AND IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. 
WHEN THIS TROUGH CATCHES UP TO A SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY 
EXTENDING FROM N MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF...THE FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO BY LATE WEEK. CORRESPONDINGLY...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A 
SURFACE LOW IN SE ARIZONA IS RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
KT ACROSS THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS. 
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH THE 
WEAKENING OF THE GREAT BASIN HIGH.

$$
COHEN/CHRISTENSEN