000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
06N105W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PERU SOUTH OF 04N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 
129W TO 138W.

OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 16N 
FROM 116W TO 121W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
MENTIONED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA N OF 20N 
WEST OF 130W. ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 10N140W TO 
09N130W TO BEYOND 32N106W A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PREDOMINATES. BOTH 
THE AREA OF THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH IS CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH 
OF 25N FROM 120W TO 135W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS ARE 
OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS REGION. A PLUME OF DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE AND MULTIPLE LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS 660 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF 130W. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS 
ARE FLOWING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHEAST OF THE 
PLUME OF MOISTURE...THAT IS THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 
25N98W TO 06N120W TO 00N140W...IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND ALSO THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT SOUTH 
OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 112W WHERE OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS PREVAIL 
AND ALSO THE CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PERU. 
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WEAKEN THROUGH 48 
HOURS.

THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND OTHER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 
TROUGH ARE UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 115W. REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS WILL BE 
LESS THAN 8 FT DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND 
THE LIMITED FETCH.

NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 
29N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL PART OF 
THE GULF TODAY THEN FALL TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT.

$$
LL