000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050345
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO 
06N90W TO 06N110W TO 11N124W TO 07N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.   

...DISCUSSION...

AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR 31N115W SWWD TO A BASE NEAR 14N135W. THE TROUGH IS 
SWINGING EWD AT 15-20 KT AND IS FORECAST TO TO MOVE ACROSS NRN 
MEXICO THROUGH 48 HOURS. LARGE DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE WELL NW 
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N143W DOMINATES THE REGION W OF THE TROUGH 
NOTED ABOVE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW 
SWEEPING INTO THE AREA ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. 
AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N123W THROUGH 19N140W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST OUT OF THE AREA 
NEAR 32N143W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 18N112W. FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE TO 10N AND 
GENERALLY W OF 125W. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS 
IN THE AREA.  

OVER THE TROPICS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILED 
E OF 115W. SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING N OF THE ITCZ TO 
25N AND E OF THE DIGGING TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SW WINDS WERE ADVECTING MULTI-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD OVER 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE CLOUDS ARE 
DISSIPATING ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
CONTINUING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. THE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE INTERMITTENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE 
NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE SEAS MAY REACH 8 FT DUE TO THE INTERMITTENT 
NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE LIMITED FETCH.

NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ALSO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION 
WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TONIGHT.

LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD 
TO N OF 24N BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS.   

$$
FORMOSA