000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...03N77W TO 
06N95W TO 10N118W TO 09N133W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 04N78.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS NORTH OF A LINE 
FROM 32N105 TO 24120W TO 19N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS OBSERVED N OF THIS LINE. THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL BE REINFORCED AS 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT 
FOR A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N122W
TO 28N127W TO 30N138W. THE FRONT HOWEVER SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 6 HOURS AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 125W AND IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION. ASSOCIATED MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND NORTH OF THE 
ITCZ TO 20N THEN TURNS NORTHEAST AND IS FLOWING OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO WITH AREAS OF OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W AND 
118W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH 
OF 14N WEST OF 112W. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N123W 
1010 MB AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON. 
BECAUSE OF THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE WINDS AND THE SHORT 
FETCH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 8 FT.

NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA 
REGION WITH WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO END SUNDAY.

$$
COBB