000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W 
TO 03N83W TO 05N98W TO 10N112W TO 10N123W TO 08N131W TO 08N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
BETWEEN 123W AND 108W...FROM 10N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM S AND 120 
NM N OF AXIS...BETWEEN 132W AND 123W.


...DISCUSSION...

QUIKSCAT DATA HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE SINCE 2240 UTC LAST NIGHT. 
THIS HAS MADE THE DETERMINATION OF WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS 
PERSIST IN THE AREA DIFFICULT AT BEST. HOWEVER...A PARTIAL ASCAT 
PASS AT 16Z SUGGESTS THAT GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION HAVE ENDED...WITH WINDS LIKELY HAVING 
RECENTLY DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 30 KT...WHILE SEAS BEYOND 60 NM 
OF THE COAST WERE 8 TO 10 FT...AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...GAP WINDS NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
HAVE BEEN ACTIVE FOR WELL MORE THAN A WEEK NOW...AND THERE ARE 
NO SIGNS OF AN END TO THE CURRENT EVENT ANY TIME SOON....JUST 
MILD FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT. THE CURRENT 
PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ARCING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO 
CENTRAL AMERICA FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND DOWNWIND TO 05N...BEFORE 
SUBSIDING BY 24 HOURS.  

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH 
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N134W...SHOULD SHIFT 
SLOWLY WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS A COLD FRONT 
DESCENDS TO NEAR 30N OVERNIGHT FRI/EARLY SAT. THE STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING NE TO 
E 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 128W THE LAST 
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SPOTTIER NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER AN EVEN 
LARGER EXPANSE FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 115W. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 12 FT IN A MIXTURE OF NW SWELL AND NE WIND 
WAVES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO 
THIS PATTERN IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR 
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE RECENTLY GENERATED NW SWELL OVER THE 
NORTHERN WATERS...AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARRIVING AND LATER 
COVERING THE AREA S OF 10N AND W OF 110W.

FINALLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE 
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN 
TO COSTA RICA...MAINLY ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS AND EASTERN 
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

$$
STRIPLING