000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
07N95W TO 09N112W TO 07N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 
119W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
120W AND 135W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

QUIKSCAT DATA HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE SINCE 2240 UTC LAST NIGHT.
THIS HAS MADE THE DETERMINATION OF WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS 
PERSIST IN THE AREA DIFFICULT AT BEST. AN ASCAT PASS HOPEFULLY 
IN THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD PROVIDE SOME HELP.
IN ANY EVENT A FRESH SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE CURRENT
ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD END
IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY SOONER. SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT ARE 
EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF GALE WINDS...WHICH SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FT WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...GAP WINDS NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
HAVE BEEN ACTIVE FOR WELL MORE THAN A WEEK NOW...AND THERE ARE 
NO SIGNS OF AN END TO THE CURRENT EVENT ANY TIME SOON. THE
CURRENT PATTERN OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ARCING FROM NORTHEAST 
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WINDS THROUGH 48 HOURS. A 0338 UTC HI RES ASCAT PASS 
INDICATED NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AREA. SEAS ARE 
ESTIMATED TO BE UP TO 9 FT. 

FINALLY...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF THE 
AREA NEAR 34N134W SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO...AS A COLD FRONT DESCENDS TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER BY 
EARLY SAT. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE HAS 
BEEN MAINTAINING NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 
22N W OF 130W THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH SPOTTIER NE TO E 20 KT 
WINDS OVER AN EVEN LARGER EXPANSE FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 115W. 
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 12 FT IN A MIXTURE OF NW 
SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THIS AREA. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS INDICATED THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF MORE RECENTLY-GENERATED NW 
SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL ARRIVING 
AND LATER COVERING THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 110W.

$$
COBB