000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE OCT 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 7N85W 9N100W 9N110W 10N120W 9N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN RATHER ON THE WEAK SIDE AS CURRENTLY 
ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 12N104W
TO 8N105W IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS 
DESCRIBED UNDER ITCZ. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 
16N118W INTO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N121W. ANOTHER WEAK LOW 
OF 1011 MB IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 13N139W 
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO NEAR 19N. THIS LOW IN COMBINATION 
WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N IS ENHANCING EASTERLY TRADES FROM 14N TO 
19N W OF ABOUT 134W.

A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NW 
CORNER WED INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. 
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THU AND FRI FROM NEAR 30N131W 
TO 23N140W AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE 
BUILDS SEAS UP TO 11 FT THU AND FRI OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. 
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FURTHER REINFORCED FRI AND SAT AS A 
LARGE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE N OF 30N140W.

A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NEAR 16N134W WITH A RIDGE NNW TO 22N135W TO NW OF THE AREA AT
32N140W. AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE
INTO THE AREA OVER THE RIDGE N OF 19N W OF 129W.

A VERY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN (UP TO 21 SECONDS AS 
INITIALIZED BY THE WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE 
W HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY BRING LARGE WAVES TO THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK.

GAP WINDS...
LATEST PRES ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT UNDER
WAY ALONG AND INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED 
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH CENTER OVER NE 
TEXAS DROPS SWD.

A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0000 UTC THIS EVENING REVEALED
N WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITH A COUPLE OF 50 KT WIND VECTORS. BASED
ON THIS...HAVE BOOSTED GALE WARNING TO A STORM WARNING FOR THE
0430 UTC HIGH SEAS FORECAST. THESE STORM CONDITIONS MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRES CONTINUES
TO SURGE S OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED. STORM WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE TO GALE CONDITIONS BY WED EVENING WITH N-NE OF 35-45 
KT BY THEN. SEAS CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 
11-17 FT RANGE...BUT SHOULD BUILD TO 19 FT BY TUE EVENING. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LASTING INTO LATE 
FRI.

THIS PRES PATTERN HAS ALSO INITIATED GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS OF
20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ABOUT
24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE