000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W 10 KT HAS 
MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR ALOFT N OF ITCZ INHIBITING ITS 
DEVELOPMENT.  WAVE TRAVELING ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH DOUBLE CENTERS AT 22N11W 
AND 21N121W.  ADVERSE CONDITIONS LIKELY EXTENDING TO 132W 
LIMITING CHANCES OF CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION OF WAVE.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION QUICKLY DECREASING IN VICINITY OF WAVE AXIS.
     
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N80W TO 12N97W TO 09N116W TO 12N133W TO 
10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 
85W-100W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N 
BETWEEN 100W-112W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 105W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENTERING E PAC AT 140W BEGINNING TO SHIFT 
NE AS BROAD COMPLEX ANTICYCLONE WILL BLOCK ANY FURTHER EWD 
INTRUSION.  AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY N OF 17N W OF 109W DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER ANTICYCLONE.

PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG SRN FRINGES OF UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH ITCZ MAKING GOOD USE OF IT FOR SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 124W.  LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISMS AND 
ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT PREVENT DEEPER CONVECTION FROM FORMING.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1032 MB AT 44N145W BEHIND COLD FRONT WELL N OF AREA 
ALONG 33N FROM 125W TO 140W.  COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER NRN 
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING GALE WINDS N OF AREA BUT 20 KT WINDS EXTEND 
S INTO E PAC WITH 8-12 FT SEAS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL MOVING INTO E PAC S OF 10N OBSERVED TO BE 
1-2 FT UNDER NWW3 GUIDANCE.  SWELL TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES