000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 07N78W TO 06N83W TO 10N92W TO 09N106W TO 04N117W TO 07N129W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 112W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N140W WITH TROUGH W OF REGION IS ADVECTING TRPCL MOISTURE INTO NW CORNER UNDER WEAK 45 KT JET CORE. MOISTURE N OF 21N W OF 130W AVAILABLE TO STATIONARY FRONT WELL N OF BASIN BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE E PAC. WIND FLOW TAKE ANTICYCLONIC TURN AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER NW MEXICO MAINTAINS STRONG HOLD OVER REGION N OF 12N E OF 130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPS AIR MASS FAIRLY DRY UNDER RIDGE UMBRELLA. MOISTURE ALSO REACHING S OF 10N W OF 128W HELPING ITCZ WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN REGION WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SITS ON TOP OF SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N127W TO 06N133W. CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS ITS FLOW OVER E PAC WITH SECOND MINOR ANTICYCLONE AT 08N102W BUT UNABLE TO ENHANCE MUCH CONVECTION WITH ITS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS WATER SEEMS TO BE LACKING. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 97W MOVING W 15 KT MIGHT BE ABLE TO USE DIVERGENT FLOW WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS. OTHERWISE MOISTURE JUST BLOWS AWAY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO WRN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...TRPCL WAVE ENTERS E PAC ALONG 83W DRAGGING LOTS OF MOISTURE BEHIND IT AND MOVING INTO ZONE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NEXT 36 HRS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WELL N OF AREA N OF 17N W OF 12W. TIGHT GRADIENT WITH LOW PRES 1004 MB SITTING OVER SRN POINT OF NEVADA FORCING N WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 30N-32N. LINGERING N SWELLS SEEP INTO E PAC N OF 28N FROM 125W-132W. LARGE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS SNEAK INTO E PAC S OF 10N W OF 95W. $$ WALLY BARNES