000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022213
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14N94W 1007 MB 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT COVERS
THE ERN PACIFIC WATERS AND LAND AREAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 
91W-98W. THIS AREA HAS BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PRETTY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. IR
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND S QUADRANTS. IF NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER THE SYSTEM WOULD
THEN INTENSIFY. IT IS FORECAST TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND THE SE PORTION OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ) IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W
12N94W 08N104W 07N110W 06N122W 04N130W 04N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 96W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-96W.

...DISCUSSION...

SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N123W
...AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N127W AND TO 22N131W WHERE ITS BECOMES
MORE OF A SHEAR AXIS TO W OF THE AREA NEAR 17N140W. SW TO W
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 4N. THE TROUGH IS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO BROAD AREAS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
...ONE CENTERED OVER WRN MEXICO NEAR 23N104W AND THE OTHER WELL 
NW OF THE REGION. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR ONLY THE NRN PART OF 
THE TROUGH TO PROGRESS EWD AT THE PRESENT TIME. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING PRACTICALLY 
THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 23N AND W OF 113W SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING THERE.

THE WIND FLOW AROUND A SMALL WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST ON THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W IS 
INTERACTING THAT OF THE AREA OF BROAD ANTICYCLONIC TO ITS W TO
CREATE A DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
IMMEDIATE VICINITY. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
NEAR THE THE LOW PRES AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. NLY AND ELY UPPER
WINDS FOUND HERE ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE SW AND W. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 48-72 HRS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE 
DISCUSSION REGION NEAR 32N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD 
THROUGH 26N126W TO 17N121W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 117W. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WWD WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 12N W OF 122W.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY WATERS.

$$
AGUIRRE