000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040914
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...ALSO CALLED THE ITCZ...IS 
ALONG THE LINE...01N79W 01N95W 09N115W 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 8N137W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE IS N OF 23N W OF 130W SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 30N W OF 138W OTHERWISE THE 
AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS BUT CLOUD FREE.

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND W OF A LINE FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 
120W TO 20N110W TO BEYOND 25N100W A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH COVERS THE AREA. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
IS IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE POINTS 30N130W 
20N113W 12N125W 19N140W 25N140W 30N130W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 
360 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AND IS FLOWING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE 
CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 113W. REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD TROUGH.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT 
IN OPEN NNW TO SSE FETCH. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM THE GAP 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FLUCTUATING BUT STILL 
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT TO SHIFT TO THE N TUE AND 
INCREASING TO A GALE LATE TUE THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE JUST 
AFTER SUNRISE WED.
 
$$
LL