000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 9N86W 6N92W 10N109W 6N115W 
3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 85W-88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
120W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
LARGE-SCALE SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS BUT HAS SHIFTED ABOUT 500 NM FARTHER E 
SINCE YESTERDAY. A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TO 
NORTHERN MEXICO THEN SW TO 17N120W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS QUITE 
STRONG AT THE MOMENT...WITH A WESTERLY 150 KT WIND MAXIMUM LYING 
W OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 37N THEN DECELERATING A BIT FARTHER E AS 
THE FLOW DIPS S OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS 
MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM 30N126W TO 24N140W BUT WILL QUICKLY 
DISSIPATE AND LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI. A SECOND COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE E OF 140W EARLY FRI NIGHT ATTACHED TO A 
DEVELOPING STORM N OF THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS 
CALIFORNIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE DISCUSSION AREA AND THUS A GALE 
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED N OF 28N W OF 130W FRI EVENING THROUGH 
SAT EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WITH A 1022 MB HIGH ANCHORING IT NEAR 24N122W.

TROPICS...
A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS STILL LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 10N139W AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY 
E OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FARTHER E...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW 
BEGINS NEAR 120W AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-124W. 
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FARTHER W TO 12N107W WITH WEAK 
TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS.

$$
BERG