000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG...5N77W 7N105W 
9N115W 7N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF 7.3N87.5N AND 7N121.5W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 12.4N113W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF A LINE 23N140W 21N122W 
TO BEYOND 26N100W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH 
48 HOURS. A PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING 
500 NM SE OF THE TROUGH LINE E OF 120W IS ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ACROSS 
MOST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

EXCEPT FOR SOME ITCZ CONVECTION THE AREA EAST OF A LINE 20N95W 
14N105W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W IS DRY IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF UPPER LEVELS IS WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. HOWEVER A 
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE REGION ALONG 120W SOUTH OF 17N IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N FROM 110W TO 120W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER MEXICO.

SURFACE...
STRONG RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 115W. STRONG TRADES OF 
20 TO 25 KNOTS OCCASIONALLY TO 30 KNOTS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
RIDGE. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A MAJOR WIND EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS...AROUND 40 TO 50 KT...TUE EVENING.

NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND 
20 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL