000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121643
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...7N78W 7N90W 10N109W 
8N129W 8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM  
94W TO 104W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 117W TO 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N112W TO THE EQUATOR AT 102W 
DENTING DOMINANCE OF CARIBBEAN MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
EXTREME E PAC AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  TROUGH CAN NOT PUSH FURTHER 
E AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN DEFLECTED NE.  SWATH OF TRPCL 
MOISTURE AT BASE OF TROUGH ADVECTED NE BY WEAK 65 KT JET CORE 
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND TEXAS.  BROAD UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 123W ALSO BRINGS 45 KT JET CORE THAT SUPPLIES 
MOISTURE TO ITCZ W OF 118W.    

AT THE SURFACE...HEALTHY RIDGE WELL N OF AREA MAINTAINS GOOD 
HOLD ON NE TRADES W OF 115W AND LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAINS 
AFFECTING MOST E PAC N OF 10N W OF 100W.  FUNNELING NW WIND 
ALONG GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUILD SEAS S OF 25N NOT EXPECTED TO 
LAST MORE THAN 24 HRS. 

PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED LOW PRES CENTER HAS WEAKENED INTO AN OPEN 
TROUGH ALONG 112W TAKING ADVANTAGE OF MOISTURE TO BUILD SOME 
MINOR DEEP CONVECTION.  SIMILARLY...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS 
CROSSING FROM CARIBBEAN SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN 24 HRS AS 
TRPCL STORM OLGA SHOULD EFFECTIVELY DIMINISH WINDS OVER WRN 
CARIBBEAN. 

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT 
SHOULD PROMPT WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  EVENT SHOULD BE 
WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.  

$$
WALLY BARNES