000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 10N85W 7N98W 9N119W 
8N130W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS FROM 120W TO 128W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 
100W AND 130W. UPSTREAM NEGATIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN PHASE WITH TROPICAL RIDGE WITH AXIS THROUGH 
32N140W 20N138W TO THE EQUATOR AT 137W. RIDGE HAS AMPLIFIED OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED WITHIN THE AREA 
OF BROAD TROUGHING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDED FROM S 
CALIFORNIA SWWD TO NEAR 24N124W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLICING SEWD 
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS AND EXTENDED FROM 28N111W 23N120W
21N130W TO 23N140W AND WAS USHERING IN FRESH NW TO N WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT AND 9 TO 14 FT SWELLS. MEANWHILE...DIFFLUENT SLY FLOW 
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS MAINTAINING SOME 
CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE ITCZ 
ALONG 120W. 

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW ALOFT WAS NOTED OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. 

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE 
WILL BUILD ALONG 135W ALLOWING A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
THE GRADIENT WITHIN THE TRADES W OF 120W WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT 
LOCALLY HIGHER EXPECTED. 

FURTHER E...HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 
20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO 25 KT AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN AT 20 KT
THROUGH 48 HOURS. A SURGE OF SLY FLOW S OF THE EQUATOR WILL 
INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WEST OF THE GALAPAGOS WITHIN 24 
HOURS. 

$$
COBB