000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061616
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 9N83W 10N111W 8N130W 
7N140W. DISSIPATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

SCATTEROMETERS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSLTY MODERATE TRADES 
S OF A 1022 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER 28N135W. SHIPS ARE 
ALSO REPORTING NLY LARGE SWELL OFF THE NW COAST OF BAJA. 
ELSEWHERE HOWEVER...SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS HINT THAT MODEL SWELL 
HEIGHTS MAY BE INTIALIZING A LITTLE TOO HIGH. THE HIGHEST SWELL 
SEEEMS TO BE CONTAINED N OF 22N. MODERATE TO FRESH CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW IS NOTED NEAR THE GALAPAGOS. LOOKING 
ALOFT...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. UPPER CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N117W W OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. TO THE WEST OF THIS...MID/UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS SE TO NW FROM 11N125W TO 26N135W. AN UPPER LOW IS 
SOUTHEAST OF THIS NEAR 13N135W. THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED ON ITS 
NORTHERN END BY A TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORINA. THE 
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT LATE FRI AS THE TROUGH 
DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE 
AMPLIFIED AND BUILDS N. 

MAIN IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORECAST ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD 
SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA W OF 120W S OF THE HIGH...ALLOWING A 
MODEST INCREASE IN TRADES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES TO THE 
NE...AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 30N OFF THE 
NRN BAJA COAST...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NLY FLOW. THE WINDS SHOULD 
DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS...BUT LINGERING NLY SWELL WILL PERSIST N OF 
22N. THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE IS SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY BELOW 20 KT 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN