000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N77W 10N84W 8N91W 12N110W 
11N117W 12N123W 7N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N87W 
7N91W AND 7N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG A LINE FROM 10N97W TO 
9N104W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 
10N AND 16N FROM 108W TO 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WAS CENTERED NEAR 
25N125W TONIGHT AND NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION IS STUCK 
BETWEEN TWO LARGE RIDGES..ONE CENTERED NW NEAR 33N142W AND THE 
OTHER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDING EWD. ON THE 
SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE WHILE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA 
RIDGES S AND SE TO 125W. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 TO 
25 KT W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE MOSTLY ELY 10 
TO 15 KT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED N/S ALONG 120W. GAP 
WINDS WERE 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO WHILE 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. 

LATER DAY 1 THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL TRY TO MAKE AN 
EXIT NWD WHILE THE TWO MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN STATIONARY. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AND 
DRIFT NWD THUS NE TRADES RELAX SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT W OF 130W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN E TO SE AT 10 TO 15 KT IN 
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ALONG 120W. GAP WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT 15 
TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES OVER THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 5N W OF 120W 
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 135W.

FOR DAY 2 GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING SE 
ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH INTERCEPTS THE OLD CLOSED LOW AND LIFTS 
IT NWD. THE NW MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS ALONG 140W. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 THE TROUGH ALONG 120W LIFTS N AND NE AS THE MID LEVEL 
CLOSED LOW MOVES NWD. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN 
SELY AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND 
NE TRADES DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE 
SAME WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRES PATTERN OVER THE GULF AND 
CARIBBEAN. NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA INCREASE TO 20 KT AS 
NE TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE CANAL 
ZONE. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT ALL 
SECTIONS.   
  
$$
RRG