000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N80W 9N97W 10N110W 13N115W 
10N124W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 
121W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 127W AND 128W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 131W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
4N TO 7N EAST OF 80W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...AND 
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 108W.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W AND 
116W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 
112W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N123W. ASSOCIATED TROUGH DOMINATED THE 
AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W. UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE WAS 
RETROGRADING NWWD TO NEAR 32N143W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
HAVING LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE 
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WAS EXTENDING EWD AND WRAPPING 
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 

TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 130W EXTENDED NWD TO 
15N AND DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL W OF 110W. 
AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
GENERALLY THROUGH 10N135W 15N125W THEN SPLIT WITH ONE BRANCH 
DIVING ESEWD TO 8N105W...WHILE THE OTHER BRANCH TURNED NWD 
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATED CORE SPEEDS EXCEEDING 100 KT ALONG 14N-15N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W. DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS EVIDENT IN TWO 
DISTINCT AREAS...THE FIRST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 5N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 135W WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN 
THAT AREA...AND THE SECOND AREA FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 100W AND 
115W ENCOMPASSING NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS 
ENHANCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
REMAINS ALONG 22N113W 16N117W 11N122W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE AREA NW OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY N OF 20N W OF 120W.

A 1250 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND A SUBSEQUENT 1546 UTC ASCAT PASS 
INDICATED WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED MARKEDLY IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT IN 
BRIEF PULSES THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

THE SAME ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED 20 KT WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 
9N TO 12N EAST OF 92W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
  
$$
COBB