000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 8N78W 6N86W 8N95W 7N100W 
11N123W 7N135W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N81W 
7N95W 13N103W 9N108W AND 9N112W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
8N121W 12N121W 13N123W 7N132W 10N136W AND 11N138W. ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 8N129W.  

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL PATTERN HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS 
WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER NW MEXICO THEN MOVING 
E AND A SECOND LARGE TROUGH CLOSING OFF NEAR 30N123W THEN MOVING 
EWD. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE PATTERN WILL REVERT BACK TO A 
BLOCKING PATTERN AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC AND RIDGES NE TO 40N130W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 33N138W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF 
STRENGTHENING SOME AND NE TRADES ARE INCREASING BETWEEN 10N AND 
20N W OF 130W TO 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN 
LIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT 
EXCEPT FOR W OF NICARAGUA AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE STRONG 
ELY WINDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WORK THEIR WAY WWD TO THE PACIFIC 
COAST. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 15 KT S OF 5N EXCEPT FOR 
BETWEEN 108W AND 120W WHERE THEY REACH 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI 
IMAGERY. 

LATER DAY 1 LARGE CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL LOW CENTER DRIFTING S TO 
NEAR 26N125W. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER EXTREME NW CORNER OF AREA. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS A FEW 
MILLIBARS W OF 130W KEEPING NE TRADES 20 TO 25 KT. WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG 120W WILL KEEP WINDS ALONG BAJA COAST 
NE 10 KT. SOME INCREASE IN GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH 
PRES BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. NO CHANGE TO PAPAGAYO 
WINDS AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.

FOR DAY 2 LARGE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N124W 
MOVING LITTLE. MID LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO AND 
OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
PACIFIC RIDGE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY WITH SUPPORT FROM 
MID LEVEL RIDGE..THUS NE TRADES REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT W OF 130W. 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN E TO SE 
WINDS E OF TROUGH S OF 20N. GALE CONDITION DEVELOPS IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT. GAP WINDS THROUGH 
PAPAGAYO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE INCREASE IN 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT E OF 90W S OF 6N WITH SEAS 
MOSTLY 6 TO 7 FT.
  
$$
RRG