000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 7N98W 11N123W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-150 NM OF 
THE AXIS W OF 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES TWO RIDGES AND TWO TROUGHS WITHIN 
AND FLANKING THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS 
LOCATED E OF THE AREA OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 
75W/76W. A CUT OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS NOTED W OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS NEAR 23N109W WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND 
THE CIRCULATION. THE MOST NOTABLE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
MEXICO SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 95W 
AND WAS NEGATIVELY TILTED. WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
LIES E OF 98W GENERALLY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND WITHIN THE TROUGH 
AXIS. HOWEVER THERE WERE SOME AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE E COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA IN 
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. 

A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK IS LOCATED JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A 
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT NARROW RIDGE AXIS ALONG 120W BOUNDED BY 
THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MEXICO AND A SHARPER 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF 
HAWAII. STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING BROKEN 
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 15N W OF 130W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
IS PRIMARILY WESTERLY S OF 15N ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH 
DIFFLUENCE WHERE SOME OF THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE TO ENHANCE 
ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 105W.

AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING 1022 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 
30N131W AND WAS SEPARATED FROM ANOTHER HIGH WELL NW OF THE AREA 
BY A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 

1142 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED ANOTHER SURGE HAS DEVELOPED IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NOTED. 
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT BY 
EARLY TUE THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THEREAFTER. THERE IS THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT 
OR EARLY TUE. 

$$
COBB