000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 6N100W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 11N W OF 110W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM 
31N135W TO 26N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 29N128W 
HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 126W WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO 
COLLAPSE SE BY CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 20N W OF 117W.

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 27N117W WITH A WEAK  
1013 MB SFC LOW. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA 
TO 28N106W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 112W IS UNDER BROAD RIDGE 
ALOFT WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE STREAMING NE INTO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 18N E OF 110W.

A WEAK ITCZ DISTURBANCE IS NEAR 10N137W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT WITHOUT 
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH 48 HOURS. NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE IN 12 HOURS AND A STRONG GALE IN 30 
HOURS...WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT NEAR STORM FORCE IN 36 HOURS.
 
$$
MUNDELL