000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N81W 7N94W 11N120W 7N134W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 3N80W 8N104W 8N105W AND 8N110W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N117W 
TO 9N122W TO 8N126W TO 8N128W TO 7N131W TO 8N139W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM SRN CA SW TO 14N130W 
TONIGHT. MAIN ENERGY IN CENTER OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO MOVING E. 
TWO LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH. RIDGE ALONG 
96W GRADUALLY WARING DOWN WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 30N. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1023 MB NEAR 28N138W 
WITH RIDGE AXIS SE TO 16N108W. RIDGE PRODUCING NE TRADES OF 20 
KT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 128W. NEXT COLD FRONT JUST N OF AREA 
ALONG 31N MOVING ESE BUT WEAKENING ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE 
PICTURES. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT BUT NEAR 
PT EUGENIO AT 27.6N114.9W SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW 20 TO 25 KT. 
GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO 
BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 
7N E OF 90W AND S OF ITCZ W OF 100W. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL TROUGH DETACHING ITSELF FROM MAIN ENERGY 
CENTER. NEW SHORTWAVE IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW MOVE E TO 123W 
HELPING KICK OUT OLD ENERGY CENTER AND MOVE IT EWD TO NW MEXICO 
NEAR 30N110W. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO FLATTEN N 
OF 25N WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER WRN PORTION STRENGTHENING. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR 
REGION ALONG 29N E OF 130W WITH NLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SWELL TO 
9 FT. PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1022 MB NEAR 28N139W WILL MAINTAIN NE 
TRADES OF 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 128W. GAP WINDS 
UNCHANGED AND GFS SHOWS CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS STRONGEST S OF 
ITCZ W OF 110W.

FOR DAY 2 NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SE INTO OLD TROUGH WITH AXIS 
ALONG 116W. WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WEAKENS..MID LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER W PORTION OF AREA STRENGTHENS WITH CENTER MOVING E TO 
26N136W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 PACIFIC RIDGE RESPONDS TO 
STRENGTHEN RIDGE ALOFT BUT STRENGTHENING ITSELF BUT MOVING ENE 
TO 30N129W. NE TRADE AREA SHIFTS E TO INCLUDE AREA W OF 120W AND 
ALSO INCREASES NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST TO 20 KT. GAP WINDS 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC ABOUT THE SAME..20 KT BUT PAPAGAYO 
DIMINISHES TO 10 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS DECREASE TO 
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. 

$$
RRG