000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N77W 7N90W 8N110W 7N122W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 78W-89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W-106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER 
MEXICO DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS RETREATED A BIT WITH A 
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
TO CENTRAL MEXICO...THEN NWD INTO TEXAS. A MID-LEVEL HIGH 
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE E COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W...WHICH 
IS KEEPING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA N OF 12N. 
WITH THE WEAKENED RIDGE...THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW S OF MEXICO HAS 
ALSO BROKEN DOWN WITH A FEW TROUGHS HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 
6N93W WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES S OF 5N BETWEEN 90W-110W...AND 
A SECOND SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 107W FROM 10N TO 
22N. ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING WITHIN THIS REGION TO 
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY E OF 106W.

W OF 110W...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA FROM 30N117W SW TO 18N133W WITH A 70 KT SUBTROPICAL 
JET EXTENDING FROM 14N140W NE INTO FAR NW MEXICO. A NARROW SWATH 
OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS BUT INCREASED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE 
W WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BUILT FROM 25N140W TO 30N130W. S 
OF 18N...BROAD S/SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION WITH 
VERY LITTLE DIVERGENCE TO ENHANCE DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL COL REGION IS LOCATED FROM 5N-13N 
BETWEEN 110W-118W AND IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ IN THAT AREA.

$$
BERG