000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 6N95W 7N110W 9N125W 12N133W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 104W-109W AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 121W-123W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
AN AMPLIFIED HIGHLY ELONGATED MID TO UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES NW 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. INDUCED 
TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE S OF THE 
RIDGE ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS WITH A WEAKENING SMALL UPPER LOW 
NEAR 7N96W. THIS PATTERN IS ONLY ENHANCING VERY SMALL ISOLATED 
PATCHES OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL TROUGH 
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER 
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...EXCEPT N OF 12N BETWEEN 
100W-106W WHERE A VERY WEAK HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM IS NOTED 
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH.

A QSCAT PASS AROUND 00Z CAPTURED THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REVEALING A FEW 20 KT NLY WIND VECTORS. IN 
ADDITION... SHIP 3FUB8 REPORTED 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE W PORTION 
OF THE GAP. GIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS HAVE LIKELY NOT BEEN 
REPORTED IT REMAINS A GOOD ASSUMPTION THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
STILL OCCURRING IN THE GAP. GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW 
WINDS SUBSIDING BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AS HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AND MOVES SW INTO THE GULF. THE SAME QSCAT PASS REVEALED 
AN AREA OF 20 KT NELY WINDS W OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 
8N-12N E OF 91W. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS BUT 
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.

W OF 110W...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 36N126W. ITS ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N126W THRU 
17N140W. UPPER SWLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING 
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 121W-123W. ABUNDANT 
SUBSIDENCE IS EMBEDDED ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...EXCEPT FOR THE NW CORNER WHERE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS 
FILTERING IN. FARTHER SE...AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 
12N120W AND AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE LIES TO ITS E ALONG 25N116W 
8N111W. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE 
WEATHER.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 18N110W. A 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 134W/135W FROM 7N-16N IS ALSO AIDING IN 
THE CLOUDINESS DESCRIBED ABOVE. TRADES ARE GENERALLY NEAR 20 KT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND TROUGH. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
LITTLE THRU TOMORROW AND THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS 
THE HIGH PRES RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOME.

$$
CANGIALOSI