000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ....
AXIS ALONG 9N83W 10N105W 12N115W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 123W-128W AND WITHIN 120 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 133W-137W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N128W A MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N177W THROUGH CONTINUES TO 20N140W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 17N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS BEING 
ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO CALIFORNIA...
ALSO SOME HIGH MOISTURE IS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
IN INDICATED N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S. ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N108W.
 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TO MEXICO TO A BASE JUST N OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MEXICO INTO PACIFIC SUPPRESSING
ITCZ CONVECTION. DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA.

THE REMNANT LOW OF T.S. KIKO HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. A WEAK 1011
MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 16N114W...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SFC RIDGE N OF 23N W OF 125W IS 
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NE WINDS N OF AROUND 20N W OF 125W.
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-30 KT WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
DGS