000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON OCT 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO AT 19.5N 109.9W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W 8 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  KIKO HAS SUDDENLY 
LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION AROUND ITS CENTER DUE TO MUCH DRIER 
STABLE AIR MASS W OF CENTER.  OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN E AND S 
QUADRANTS WHILE STILL EFFECTIVE W AND N QUADRANTS.  COOLER 
WATERS AND INCREASINGLY ADVERSE ENVIRON ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO 
KIKOS DEMISE WITHIN 48 HRS.  REFER TO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
10N85W 14N95W 10N120W 8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 104W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS
W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
34N124W TO 26N115W.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 17N140W 27N140W TO 
BEYOND 32N133W.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIG S ALONG 105W INTO MEXICO 
N OF 26N.  BOTH UPPER FEATURES HAVING EFFECT ON T.S. KIKO.  
RIDGE PRODUCING DRY ENVIRONMENT N OF 10N W OF 110W.  TROUGH 
BRINGING WITH IT SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS NW MEXICO.  JET STREAM 
ACCELERATE OUTFLOW FROM T.S. KIKO.  NW WINDS IN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA DUE TO HIGH PRES.  COLD FRONT FORECAST IN GULF OF 
MEXICO DURING NEXT 2 DAYS.  GALE FORECAST IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
IN 30 HOURS.

$$
WALLY BARNES