000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO NEAR 16.7N 104.9W OR ABOUT 135 NM...260 KM 
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 190 NM...340 KM WEST 
SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO...AT 19/0900 UTC. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT WITH ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W MOVING W 10 KT. NO CONVECTION AT THIS 
TIME.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N80W 14N90W 12N100W 
9N109W 10N123W 7N135W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR 7N80W TO 7N85W THEN ALONG THE COAST TO 11N87W TO 
13N90W TO 16N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N105W 9N125W AND 
8N136W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING TONIGHT BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WITH 
DEPARTING STRONG UPPER TROUGH. STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES REPLACING 
TROUGH N OF 30N. S OF 30N FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 24N E TO 
110W. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 140W N OF 27N. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE FROM 15N TO 30N 
W OF 110W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.S. KIKO SOME 300 NM SW OF 
THE MEXICAN COAST HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. 
STORM DRIFTING NW. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB CENTER NEAR 
27N135W IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 10N W OF 125W. ALSO 
NLY WINDS N OF 20N E OF 125W BACKING TO NWLY ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST. WINDS HAVE INCREASE OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ TO NWLY 20 KT. 
GAP WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH ONSHORE WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL S 
AND SW WINDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 95W AND 110W NWD INTO TEHUANTEPEC 
WHERE QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOW 20 TO 25 KT.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. 
ONE SHORTWAVE ALONG 137W AND A SECOND ONE ALONG 120W. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 T.S. KIKO FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS 
IT MOVES NW. LITTLE CHANGE TO PACIFIC RIDGE AND WINDS W OF 120W. 
WINDS AROUND BAJA DECREASE SOME TO 10 TO 15 KT. THIS INCLUDES 
THE SEA OF CORTEZ. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL S 
AND SW WINDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 95W AND 115W TO 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD AT MID LEVELS DEVELOPS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THIS IS BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL RIDGE 
CENTERS..ONE OVER NE MEXICO AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 25N145W. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL 
CONTINUE ON A SLOW NNW COURSE INFLUENCED BY THE WEAKNESS AT MID 
LEVELS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE 
CENTER SHIFTING N TO NEAR 34N134W. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT N 
OF 12N W OF 125W WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 25 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 
118W AND 125W. NLY SWELL WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THIS AREA. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY..BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING 
SWELL FROM THE S OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DUE 
TO KIKO. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SW WINDS 
TO 20 KT CAN BE FOUND JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE S OF 10N W OF 110W AND 
S OF 12N E OF 110W.

$$
RRG