000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KIKO IS NEAR 15.4 104.2W OR ABOUT 540 NM SSE OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 18/0900 UTC. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. OTHER STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 
NM W QUADRANT.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITH NO ORGANIZATION.   

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 9N78W 9N95W 12N109W 
10N122W AND 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 3N78W TO 7N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 
10N87W 13N88W AND 12N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 9N122W 10N128W 
10N132W AND 11N135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER NRN MEXICO AS A STRONG 
UPPER TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS 
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH ALONG 130W WITH A CENTER NEAR 25N135W. ON 
THE SURFACE TONIGHT T.S. KIKO CONTINUES TO LOOK DISORGANIZED BUT 
NEW CONVECTION KEEPS FIRING NEAR THE CENTER AND FOR 225 NM NW OF 
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG E AND NE 
WINDS OVER THE CENTER WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW LIMITED TO THE 
NW OF THE CENTER. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N133W 
WITH A 1024 MB CENTER. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND NE TRADES TO 20 KT N OF 12N W OF 120W. 
GAP WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
BLOWING BETWEEN 7N AND 13N FROM 100W TO 115W WITH SLY SWELL OF 9 
TO 12 FT.

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E TO 120W WITH A STRONG 
ZONAL FLOW N OF 30N W OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE 
CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE OR WINDS ABOUT THE RIDGE. T.S. KIKO 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE ENE AND ALL INTERESTS 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD FOLLOW IT'S PROGRESS. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL WINDS AND GAP WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 2 A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 30N WILL KEEP SYSTEMS 
MOVING ALONG. S OF 30N A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE AS 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER 1025 MB WILL 
DRIFT W TO 27N140W MAINTAINING NE WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 22N W OF 
125W. T.S. KIKO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME BUT REMAIN A 
TROPICAL STORM AS IT DRIFTS ENE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. GAP 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CROSS QUATORIAL WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
FORECAST BETWEEN 7N TO 13N FROM 95W TO 110W. 

$$
RRG