000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN OCT 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE....AXIS ALONG 11N84W 17N105W 
12N110W 8N121W 12N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 4N78W 7N80W 8N85W 12N89W 13N91W 14N93W 13N95W 
AND 14N100W. 

LOW PRES NEAR 14N108W WITH A ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1006 
MB WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN AN AREA 
BOUNDED BY 14N AND 17N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 
HR. 

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SW CONUS TONIGHT LOWERING 
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER NRN MEXICO. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE 
FOLLOWING TROUGH ALONG 125W WITH A SECOND STRONG TROUGH MOVING 
ESE TO NEAR 145W. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER REGION S OF 27N 
WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER NEAR 23N128W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
TRPL LOW WAS NEAR 14N107W MOVING W SLOWLY. GFS MODEL CONTINUES 
TO LIKE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND IT APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING 
CONVECTION TO THE W OF THE CENTER. DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 
26N GRADUALLY LOSING IT'S IDENTITY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS 
WEAK WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT..THUS NE TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NWLY 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI 
AND QUIKSCAT. GAP WINDS LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
CONTINUE TO BE STRONGEST WITH SPEEDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN 90W AND 
110W FROM 5N TO 12N BOWING ITCZ NWD. SLY SWELL TO 8 FT 
THROUGHOUT THIS AREA.

LATER DAY 1 STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EWD OVER ROCKIES WITH 
POLAR JET CYCLING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO. WEAK 
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO 120W WHILE NEXT STRONG TROUGH MOVES TO 
138W N OF AREA BUT LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 28N W OF 
130W. FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER REGION S OF 27N. ON 
THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 TRPL DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED 
FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS WWD. PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS 
WEAK AND WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE TO 15 KT. NO CHANGE 
IN GAP WINDS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS STRONGEST BETWEEN 100W 
AND 120W THANKS TO LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH TRPL DISTURBANCE. 

FOR DAY 2 STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 30N KEEPS TROUGHS ON THE 
RUN MAINLY BRUSHING BY OUR REGION. NEXT TROUGH MOVES TO 124W. 
MID LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BUILDING NW OF AREA EXTENDS SE TO 
20N120W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 PACIFIC RIDGE FINALLY GETTING SOME 
LIFE IN IT WITH NE TRADES S OF 20N W OF 120W INCREASING 15 TO 20 
KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST MOSTLY NWLY 15 KT ENHANCED SOME 
BY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TRPL SYSTEM NEAR 15N110W. GAP WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT WHILE SWLY WINDS S OF 10N E OF 110W REMAIN 20 KT 
WITH SLY SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT.

$$
RRG