000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080926 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 08 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W MOVING W 15 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT NO ORGANIZATION. WAVE MOVING INTO DRIER MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 13N87W 11N94W 13N108W 11N121W 14N136W 15N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF A LINE FROM 7N82W TO 8N91W TO 9N97W TO 13N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 20 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N115W TO 10N140W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 17N108W AND 14N130W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE OCCUPIED THE AREA BETWEEN 115W AND 130W ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT NEWD. THE WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME MORE ZONAL N OF 35N WHICH HAS NOT HELPED THE SITUATION..BUT A SWLY JET HAS SET IN WHICH HAS. THE JET KNOWN TO W COAST FORECASTERS AS THE "PINEAPPLE" EXPRESS HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AT MID LEVELS BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ ALONG 10N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE JET NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS..FROM WHICH IT GETS IT'S NAME..STREAKING NE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM 20N140W TO NRN BAJA. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM NEAR 21N107W S AND SE TO 14N105W TO 12N90W WHERE IT CURLS INLAND OVER THE EXTREME WRN CARIBBEAN. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A 1025 MB CENTER NEAR 33N140W RIDGES SE TO 15N110W. NE TRADES HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HRS AND SSMI SHOWS NE WINDS TO 20 KT W OF 130W AND IN AN AREA FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 115W TO 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST NEAR 15 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI AND QUIKSCAT WHILE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CORTEZ ARE 20 TO 25 KT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS ARE SWLY 20 KT E OF 105W AND TO 20 KT BETWEEN 5N AND 10N W OF 120W WITH SLY SWELL TO 8 FT. LATER DAY 1 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVES LIFTING NE BUT THE LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS NEAR 30N130W ALSO REFLECT AN APPROACHING LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW. THE SWLY JET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION N OF 20N. A MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE IT'S APPEARANCE OVER NRN MEXICO WHILE A SECOND RIDGE REMAINS W OF 140W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WITH DECREASING SUPPORT ALOFT..THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS E OF 140W AND NE TRADES DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST BECOME LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ONSHORE AT 5 TO 10 KT. WINDS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS REMAIN 20 KT FROM THE SW BETWEEN 5N AND 10N E OF 115W AND MOSTLY SE TO S TO 20 KT W OF 120W. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W AS A DEEP COLD CORE TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST OF N AMERICA. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MEXICO WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 15N140W. WITH INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING THE AREA THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH 30N FROM THE NW WITH INCREASING SW AND W WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG 30N AND NW SWELL INCREASING TO 8 FT. A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 24N134W ANCHORS THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND N TO NE TRADES OF 15 KT SHOULD BE THE RULE FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 115W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN 10 KT WHILE GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS DECREASE W OF 120W TO 10 KT WHILE E OF 115W THEY REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME..SWLY TO 20 KT. $$ RRG