000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 2045 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION AND ONLY WEAK CYCLONIC ROTATION NOTED. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 10N85W  8N95W 
13N116W 8N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 90W 
TO 119W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
COAST FROM WRN NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N131W 
TO 26N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO SUBSIDING AIR ALONG AND NW 
OF AXIS.  LARGE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS 
RIDGE W-SW TO 12N140W WITH MINOR DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG 130W S 
OF 15N.  DRY AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE W OF 125W LITERALLY SHUNTS 
ITCZ CONVECTION AT THAT POINT.  EVEN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 126W 
STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING.

ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
FROM CARIBBEAN INTO EPAC.  

HIGH PRES 1027 MB NW OF AREA PROMPTS SWELL TRAINS WHICH ENTER E 
PAC ALONG N BOUNDARY AND ENCROACH AS FAR S AS 10N W OF 115W.  
HIGH PRES WEAKENING EXPECTED TO DO LIKEWISE TO TRADES AFTER NEXT 
48 HRS. 

MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS S OF EQUATORIAL TROUGH ALSO BUILDING 
8 FT SEAS FOR NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES