000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 113.9W AT 30/1500 UTC 
MOVING NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS TO 
50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG CONVECTION OVER AND 
JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF 19.4N114.6W. JULIETTE IS 
BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO 
THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER MEXICO. THE STORM 
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...EXCEPT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THIS FEATURE.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS 9N85W 9N95W 14N112W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 
111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 115W WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
27N124W THROUGH 20N127W TO 13N133W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A 60 TO 75 KT JET IS 
LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N122W TO N CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 105W IS EASTERLY AND 
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS JULIETTE ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE 
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO. SATELLITE CLOUD 
DRIFT WINDS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL