000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W/86W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT ACROSS 
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. A MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS 
NOTED NEAR 9N87W. THIS FEATURE COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ERUPTING WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE COAST FROM 10N TO 13N. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
LOCATED NEAR A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR THE 
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
102W-107W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 13N92W 10N98W 13N104W 11N114W 
13N124W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N 
E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 126W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 
110W...AND BETWEEN 131W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS OPENED 
UP INTO A TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SWD TO NRN 
MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. THIS FEATURE HAS KEPT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
OUT OF THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 99W-110W. DRY AIR ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF THE LOW HAS FILTERED DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST AS FAR S AS 
ACAPULCO. A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF 
100W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING 
WATER VAPOR FROM THE CARIBBEAN SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAK 
QUASI-STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED SW OF THE GUATEMALA 
COAST NEAR 12N93W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS OR SO. 

W OF 110W...
THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 22N110W...OR ABOUT 50 NM 
S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. 
THE LOW IS DRIFTING E AND IS MERELY A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD TROUGH CUT-OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES EXTENDS
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 32N115W TO 24N130W TO 14N135W. 
A MASSIVE AREA OF DRY AIR COVERS THE NW PART OF THE AREA NW OF A 
LINE FROM NW MEXICO TO 20N127W TO 10N140W...AND ALSO OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. BENEATH THE TROUGH...THE 
REMNANT LOW OF T.D. THIRTEEN-E IS STILL MEANDERING NEAR 17N128W 
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB...BUT IS EXPECTED TO 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 
THE LOW FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 120W-124W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER 
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 16N115W WITH A MOIST AIR MASS TO THE S 
WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

$$
COBB