000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W/84W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT ACROSS COSTA 
RICA. A MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS NOTED JUST OFF THE 
NICOYA PENINSULA OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N87W...AND THIS FEATURE 
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
N OF 6N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
LOCATED NEAR A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR THE 
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
102W-107W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 13N100W 11N111W 12N120W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 
85W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
102W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
THE LARGE MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS 
TO BE OPENING UP AND LIFTING N INTO TEXAS. THIS FEATURE HAS KEPT 
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 99W-110W. 
DRY AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HAS FILTERED DOWN THE 
MEXICAN COAST ALMOST AS FAR E AS ACAPULCO. THERE IS MUCH MORE 
MOISTURE E OF 98W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EAST/ 
NORTHEASTERLY...ADVECTING WATER VAPOR FROM THE CARIBBEAN SW 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. AGAIN THIS EVENING...THE AXIS OF 
LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS OFFSET FROM THE ITCZ AXIS...WHICH 
IS FARTHER N ALONG 12N. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED SW OF THE 
GUATEMALA COAST NEAR 12N93W AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

W OF 110W...
THE REMNANT LOW OF IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 22N111W...OR ABOUT 65 NM 
SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 
MB. THE LOW IS MOVING E NEAR 5 KT AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF 
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO MORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE REMNANT 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT 
MOVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...THE LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS OVER CALIFORNIA 
YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED NE OVER SW IDAHO...BUT HAS LEFT A BROAD 
CUT-OFF TROUGH IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 
30N119W TO 24N130W TO 15N134W. A MASSIVE AREA OF DRY AIR COVERS 
THE NW PART OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM NW MEXICO TO 20N126W 
TO 11N140W. BENEATH THE TROUGH...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. 
THIRTEEN-E IS STILL MEANDERING NEAR 17N127W WITH A CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 
48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 
14N-17N BETWEEN 120W-124W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED 
NEAR 16N115W WITH A MOIST AIR MASS TO THE S WITHIN THE 
ITCZ...AND A DRY PATCH MOVING E ACROSS SOCORRO AND CLARION 
ISLANDS.

$$
BERG