000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO CENTERED NEAR 22.0N 110.9W...OR 70 NM SW 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 23/2100 UTC MOVING E AT 4 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. IVO NOW ONLY CONSISTS OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL SWIRL 
OF CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE LONE TSTM CLUSTER ON THE N 
SIDE NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN CABO SAN LUCAS 
AND ISLA SANTA MARGARITA. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATED 
THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND THE 
SYSTEM IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED 
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IVO WILL MOVE E AS A REMNANT LOW AND 
DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM N QUADRANT.
  
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W/83W N OF 5N MOVING W 10 KT ACROSS PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA. A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LOCATED NEAR THE WAVE 
AXIS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA MOVING INLAND ACROSS HONDURAS AND 
NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE EFFECT OVER THE 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
LOCATED NEAR A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR THE 
ITCZ. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 13N100W 11N111W 12N120W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
102W-131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND THIS IN TURN HAS KEPT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF 
THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 98W-110W. DRY AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF 
THE LOW HAS FILTERED DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST ALMOST AS FAR E AS 
ACAPULCO. THERE IS MUCH MORE MOISTURE E OF 98W WHERE THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS EAST/NORTHEASTERLY...ADVECTING WATER VAPOR FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. AGAIN TODAY...THE AXIS 
OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IS OFFSET FROM THE ITCZ 
AXIS...WHICH IS FARTHER N ALONG 12N. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS 
LOCATED SW OF THE GUATEMALA COAST NEAR 12N92W AND IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW FROM 
11N-15N BETWEEN 92W-99W.

W OF 110W...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS OVER CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY HAS 
LIFTED NE NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON BORDER...BUT HAS LEFT A BROAD 
CUT-OFF TROUGH IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 
30N120W TO 24N130W TO 15N134W. A MASSIVE AREA OF DRY AIR COVERS 
THE NW PART OF THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM NW MEXICO TO 20N126W 
TO 12N140W. BENEATH THE TROUGH...THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. 
THIRTEEN-E IS STILL MEANDERING NEAR 17N127W WITH A CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF 1009 MB...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 
48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM 
12N-18N BETWEEN 120W-124W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED 
NEAR 16N115W WITH A MOIST AIR MASS TO THE S WITHIN THE 
ITCZ...AND A DRY PATCH MOVING E ACROSS SOCORRO AND CLARION 
ISLANDS.

$$
BERG