000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142218 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 6N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-12N. UPPER DIFFLUENT IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE....INCLUDING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 4N-18N IS MOVING 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 104W-110W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-12N. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW MAY DEVELOP SOME OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 138W FROM 4N-16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS IDENTIFIED CONSISTING OF BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N78W 10N85W 12.5N100W 9N110W 10N120W 12N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 26N116W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 22N119W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N E OF 115W TO ACROSS BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N101W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 19N109W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16.5N104W THROUGH 12N106W TO 5N107.5W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW SPILLS SWD FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO S TO 10N W OF 96W WHERE IT BECOMES NE-E WESTWARD TO 125W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 4N. WEAK LOW PRES 1008 MB MOVING WNW 5-10 KT IS NEAR 17N115W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE LOW... AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW THROUGH 17N120W TO 15N125W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. W OF 125W... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MID AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 26.5N125W SW TO 18N140W. AN EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES IS NEAR 18N138W. THE COMBINATION OF THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...AND BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE REGION IS RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW NW OF THE RIDGE. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 28N140W AND EXTENDS NEWD TO N OF THE REGION AT 32N125W. A STRONG WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM IS WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W..AND SHOULD CLIP THE FAR NW CORNER DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY SW OF LINE 25N140W 32N121W TO VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. LIMITED MOISTURE IS SEEN HERE. PATCHES OF MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NW OF LINE 24N140W TO 32N129W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N145W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N121W. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 21N W OF 121W. $$ AGUIRRE