000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132211 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W N OF 6N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 6N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER PANAMA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 4N-17N IS MOVING 10 KT. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 97W-106.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THIS WAVE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 100W-106W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 137W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 11N137W. ISOLATED WEAK MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N138W. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N84W 11N95W 11N105W 15N115W 12N120W 11N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 27N115W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 22N119W. ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N E OF 115W TO ACROSS BAJA AND NRN MEXICO. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N100W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 19N109W. IN BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNE 15 KT IS OVER THE FAR SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N104W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC AND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER WRN MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW THROUGH 22N11W 21N117W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW SPILLS SWD FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO S TO 10N...THEN BECOMES NE-E WESTWARD TO 125W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE AREA N OF 4N. WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB MOVING NW 10 KT IS NEAR 17N113W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC ROTATION TO LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...HOWEVER CONVECTION CONTINUES ON THE DECREASING TREND. ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVING W 10-15 KT IS NEAR 15N122W. ONLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HRS AS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR IT TO DEVELOP. A WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. W OF 125W... AN ELONGATED AREA OF MID AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 26.5N125W SW TO 20N140W. EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES ARE NEAR 25N128W AND 22N135W. THE COMBINATION OF THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...AND BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE REGION IS RESULTING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW NW OF THE RIDGE. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 28N140W AND EXTENDS NEWD TO N OF THE REGION AT 32N125W. A STRONG WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM IS WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W..AND SHOULD CLIP THE FAR NW CORNER DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY SW OF LINE 25N140W 32N121W TO VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. LIMITED MOISTURE IS SEEN HERE. PATCHES OF MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NW OF LINE 24N140W TO 32N129W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N129W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 26N119W. $$ AGUIRRE