000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122214 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED SEP 12 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W N OF 6N IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONCENTRATION OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 9N103W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE MAY DEVELOP FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W FROM 6N-16N IS MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N135W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 8N91W 11N100W 16N110W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 140W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 27N111.5W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 21N112W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ACROSS NW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO SOUTHERN BAJA AND TO 23N115W. TO THE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE ...THERE IS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS APPROACHING THE SEA OF CORTEZ 24N107W. MODERATE TO NE FLOW BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES REACHES WESTWARD TO NEAR 115W. A WEAK MID/UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 10-15 KT IS NEAR 23N120W. EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N-27N E OF 122W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N107W IS HELPING TO ADVECT THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING W 15 KT IS EXTENDS 15N110W SW TO 4N114W. THE UPPER FLOW IS E-SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW MOVING WNW 10-15 KT IS NEAR 15N119W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE LOW. A WEAK PRES IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. W OF 125W... A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE AREA AND W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N135W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED TO THE NW OF LINE 23N140W 32N121W. NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 32N118W SW TO 20N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 60 KT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 27N140W AND EXTENDS NEWD TO N OF THE REGION AT 32N126W. A STRONG WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM IS POISED SHOULD ENTER THE FAR WRN PART OF THE AREA FROM 24N-28N DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. AMPLE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY IS TO THE SE OF THE AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW TO VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. LIMITED MOISTURE IS SEEN HERE. PATCHES OF MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN NW OF LINE 22N140W TO 32N126W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N127W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 26N121.5W. $$ AGUIRRE