000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 6N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
POSITIONED ALONG A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING W AND IS LOCATED W OF 
A STRONGER CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 15N105W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 95W-102W.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 118W WAS RELOCATED ALONG 
115W/116W S OF 17N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DRIFTING WESTWARD. 
MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 113W-120W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 130W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE 
APPEARS WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BUT IT IS HARD 
TO DETERMINE IF THE CIRCULATION REACHES TO THE SURFACE. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 124W-132W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N76W 12N94W 15N108W 11N122W 10N140W. 
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES... 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
AXIS E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N108W 
TO THE AXIS NEAR 14N112W. A WEAKENING 1007 MB LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 15N105W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
102-109W. THIS LOW APPEARS TO BECOMING ELONGATED AND WILL BE A 
SURFACE TROUGH ON THE 11/1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 21N103W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO...AND DEEP-LAYERED 
MOISTURE BEING PULLED NWD FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS MUCH OF 
SE MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY EASTERLY TO 
THE S OF THE AMERICAN LANDMASS WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH 
EMBEDDED ALONG 105W. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. 

W OF 110W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 34N136W 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REACHING INTO THE AREA N OF 24N W OF 125W. 
THE AIR MASS IS DRY HOWEVER...AND ONLY A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS 
DECK COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 125W IS FEEDING INTO 
THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH SOME CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO REACH FARTHER N BUT LARGELY 
EVAPORATING IN THE DRIER AIR. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER HIGH IS 
CENTERED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N115W AND THE DEEPEST 
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO E OF 110W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
LOCATED JUST W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ALONG 112W BUT IT TOO IS DEVOID 
OF DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
WALLACE