000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU SEP 6 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 5N MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W BETWEEN 6N-16N MOVING WEST LESS THAN 10 KT. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OTHER THAN ALONG ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 14N91W 9N115W 13N120W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
97W TO 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING...THE 
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC HAS BECOME RATHER QUIET ONCE AGAIN. EXCEPT FOR 
A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS EAST 
OF 120W AND AN AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BASIN LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AT THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. THE CONVECTION SOUTH 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN 91W AND 98W IS CLOSELY TIED TO LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE INTO REMNANT LOW OF FELIX NEAR 17N92W MAKING ITS WAY 
ACROSS GUATEMALA. QUIKSCAT INDICATES STRAIGHT LINE CONVERGENCE OVER 
WATER SOUTH OF THE LOW WITH ONLY A HINT OF A CIRCULATION NEAR THE 
GUATEMALAN PACIFIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID 
LEVEL AIR OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE EAST PACIFIC...WITH A SMALL AREA OF 
DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED TO AN AREA N OF 4N E OF 110W. AN UPPER LOW IS 
EVIDENT NEAR 19N101W MOVING W 15-20 KT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LACK
OF MOISTURE W OF 110W CORRESPONDS TO NO TROPICAL WAVES OR SFC LOWS 
ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EAST PACIFIC.

THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 30N127W IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS THAT PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS. THIS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
THE TRADE WINDS N OF 15N OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WINDS AND 
SEAS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR SEVERAL DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL 
AREA OF SWELLS TO 10 FT EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE S OF 30N W OF 125W 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
MUNDELL