000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU SEP 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 5N TO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE FROM 11N-14N. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 5N-17N IS MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT REMAINS UNDER DRY UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 12N90W 13N100W 10N110W 9N120W 10N130W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N89W 9N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W-116W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 10N102W 9N107W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 20N E OF 115W TO OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO ABOUT 250 NM WSW OF EL PASO TEXAS AT 0900 UTC. THE RIDGE IS SERVING AS AN OUTFLOW FOR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. HENRIETTE TO SPREAD NNE INTO THE SW U.S. AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ON THURSDAY...RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE LAST ADVISORY ON HENRIETTE WAS ISSUED AT 06/0900 UTC BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT. A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD IS NOTED NEAR 27N121W. THE LOW IS WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT OVER EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 19N100W HAS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 12N99W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM 18N114W TO 11N120W. A SMALL WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING NNW 10 KT IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N114W. AMPLE DRY AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 114W...AND ALSO S OF 6N BETWEEN 100W-125W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ENCROACHING FROM THE NE ONTO THE AREA ELSEWHERE S OF 6N WHERE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE REMNANT LOW OF HURRICANE FELIX... NOW OVER NW GUATEMALA IS FORECAST TO TRACK WNW INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N100W. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH THEN DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING TO ITS N BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL DIMINISH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW. W OF 125W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW E OF THE AREA NEAR 27N121W EXTENDS WNW THROUGH 24N129W TO 25N138W. A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 16N134W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NNE TO 22N131W. NWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS N OF 9N. THIS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE WATERS. THE ONLY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PRESENT ARE SEEN AS BROKEN IN PATCHES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD N OF 17N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CLOUDS. A WEAK PRES PATTERN GENERALLY EXISTS THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE