000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 104.3W...OR ABOUT 
ABOUT 85 MILES S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 505 MILES SE 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 01/1500 UTC. HENRIETTE IS 
MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ON THIS TRACK HENRIETTE WILL BE GRADUALLY 
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS THE TRACK IS AWAY 
FROM SHORE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND HENRIETTE COULD BECOME 
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF THE CENTER...WITHIN 150 NM OF 
18N106.5W. THIS CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES AS THE CYCLONE 
TRACKS WNW ALONG THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 120.7W AT 
01/1500Z UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1004 MB. GIL IS EXPERIENCING ELY SHEAR AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS 
OVER COOLER SURFACE WATERS...THUS A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 18N121W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

AXIS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 9N90W 18N110W 9N125W 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
120 S OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 31N118W RIDGES SW TO A SHARP CREST AT 
21N135W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED GENERALLY NW OF THIS RIDGE 
LINE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS CONTINUING W JUST S OF THE 
RIDGE WITH ELY SHEAR ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE 240 NM W OF THE 
WEAKENING CYCLONE. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS ALSO NOTED S OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE W OF 120W...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF 120W EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER AT 12N136W. A LOW 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 29N140W 24N125W. 
    
ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 22N107W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 95W 
COMBINES AND FANS OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 3N TO 
24N...NEAR THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE...ALL TO THE E OF 118W. 
   
$$
NELSON