000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THERE IS 
ENHANCED TURNING BOTH TO THE E AND W OF THE ANALYZED AXIS.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 8N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 
1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N109W.  
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES WITH 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE AREA 
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 109W-113W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 132W FROM 4N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N131W.  A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL TURING IS EVIDENT ALONG THIS WAVE 
AXIS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WEAK LOW CENTER. THIS WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED IN A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING 
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N87W 13N100W 16N108W 12N115W 
13N130W 8N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 128W AND 
130W.     

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS SE OF THERE WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N115W AND NEAR 17N141W. A WEAK 
INVERTED TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE ANTICYCLONES. THIS OVERALL 
CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 
120W. THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST 
CONTRIBUTED TO A TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ DISTURBANCES. STRONG 
UPPER NELY FLOW...BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF AND AN UPPER 
HIGH OVER MEXICO IS ALSO ADVECTING WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS 
INTO THE REGION.THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...DISCUSSED ABOVE. 

AT THE SFC...RATHER WEAK RIDGING IS PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRES PATTERN MAY EVEN WEAKEN FURTHER 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXTENSIVE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS 
(TRADES) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT. ONE AREA TO WATCH IS 
AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE GULF OF TEHUANEPEC 
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HAVE WORKED SOME WINDS AROUND THIS LOW 
IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.  SOME 8 FT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS 
NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 135W.  FURTHER N...A BROKEN 
LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICS 
INDICATING STABILITY IN THE REGION.

$$
FORMOSA