000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ALONG 87W N OF 6N ESTIMATED TO 
BE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS ADJUSTMENT WAS BASED ON THE 
FORMATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE S CENTRAL GULF. FOR 
DETAILS REFER TO THE ATLANTIC TWD...MIATWDAT. IN THE 
EPAC...THERE IS ENHANCED TURNING BOTH TO THE E AND W OF THE 
ANALYZED AXIS...LIKELY ASSSOCIATED WITH ITCZ ENERGY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALSO ADJUSTED ALONG 108W FROM 8N-17N MOVING W 
10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW WAS ADDED TO THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 13N. 
VIS IMAGES SHOW AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES WITH LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE BLOB FROM 
13N-16N BETWEEN 109W-112W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 131W FROM 8N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
1011 MB WAS ADDED TO THE WAVE ALONG 13N. A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
LOW-LEVEL TURING IS EVIDENT ALONG THIS WAVE AXIS...ESPECIALLY 
NEAR THE WEAK LOW CENTER. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N77W 13N90W 13N100W 15N105W 13N115W 14N130W 
10N135W 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 5N 
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS SE OF THERE WITH AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N115W AND NEAR 17N141W. A WEAK 
INVERTED TROUGH LIES BETWEEN THESE ANTICYCLONES. THIS OVERALL 
CONFLUENT PATTERN IS SUSTAINING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT W OF 
120W. THE TROPICAL ERN PACIFIC IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST 
CONTRIBUTED TO A TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ DISTURBANCES. STRONG 
UPPER NELY FLOW...BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF AND AN UPPER 
HIGH OVER MEXICO IS ALSO ADVECTING WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS 
INTO THE REGION.THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...DISCUSSED ABOVE. 

AT THE SFC...RATHER WEAK RIDGING IS PRODUCING MODERATE WINDS 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRES PATTERN MAY EVEN WEAKEN FURTHER 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXTENSIVE AREAS OF STRONG WINDS 
(TRADES) ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT. ONE AREA TO WATCH IS 
AN AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE GULF OF TEHUANEPEC 
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HAVE WORKED SOME WINDS AROUND THIS LOW 
IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. A BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SUBTROPICS...INDICATING THE STABILITY 
IN THE REGION.

$$
CANGIALOSI